{"id":17792,"date":"2025-03-04T11:09:34","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T10:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aassdn.org\/amicale\/?p=17792"},"modified":"2025-03-17T19:09:52","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T18:09:52","slug":"geopolitique-tchad-pourquoi-le-soutien-de-mahamat-deby-aux-milices-soudanaises-constitue-un-risque-grave-pour-son-regime-pour-le-tchad-et-pour-la-stabilite-regionale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aassdn.org\/amicale\/geopolitique-tchad-pourquoi-le-soutien-de-mahamat-deby-aux-milices-soudanaises-constitue-un-risque-grave-pour-son-regime-pour-le-tchad-et-pour-la-stabilite-regionale\/","title":{"rendered":"Tchad : Mahamat D\u00e9by face au pi\u00e8ge ethno-politique et militaire"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

En soutenant les Forces de soutien rapide (FSR) dans la guerre civile soudanaise, le pr\u00e9sident tchadien Mahamat D\u00e9by fragilise son pouvoir et ravive les tensions ethno-politiques qui fa\u00e7onnent l\u2019histoire du pays. Alors que l\u2019arm\u00e9e soudanaise arme des rebelles tchadiens pour d\u00e9stabiliser son r\u00e9gime, D\u00e9by se retrouve confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une arm\u00e9e divis\u00e9e et un socle ethnique affaibli. Une situation explosive qui pourrait faire basculer le Tchad dans une nouvelle guerre civile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Dans la guerre civile du Soudan, qui, depuis avril 2023, oppose les Forces arm\u00e9es soudanaises (FAS) du g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, aux Forces de soutien rapide (FSR), de Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo alias Hemeti,\u00a0 le pr\u00e9sident tchadien Mahamat a pris le parti des FSR. Or, les FSR sont issues des Janjawid, milice tristement c\u00e9l\u00e8bre pour ses atrocit\u00e9s commises lors de la deuxi\u00e8me guerre du Darfour d\u00e9but\u00e9e en 2003 contre les Fur, les Massalit et les Zaghawa (voir \u00e0 ce sujet mon livre Histoire du Sahel des origines \u00e0 nos jours<\/em><\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Or, ces trois ethnies transfrontali\u00e8res sont ulc\u00e9r\u00e9es de voir que le pr\u00e9sident tchadien a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de soutenir ceux qui ont quasi-ethnocid\u00e9 les leurs.\u00a0 R\u00e9sultat, les FAS arment actuellement des rebelles tchadiens dont l\u2019objectif est la prise du pouvoir \u00e0 Ndjamena, afin de priver les FSR de leur base arri\u00e8re.\u00a0Or, comme je l\u2019ai \u00e9crit dans mon pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent communiqu\u00e9, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence de son p\u00e8re, Mahamat D\u00e9by qui n\u2019a ni ses capacit\u00e9s militaires, ni son envergure politique, se retrouve avec une arm\u00e9e profond\u00e9ment divis\u00e9e et un pouvoir fragilis\u00e9 face \u00e0 des rebelles aguerris, \u00e9quip\u00e9s et soutenus par l\u2019arm\u00e9e soudanaise. Un Mahamat D\u00e9by qui, de plus, ne pourra pas \u00eatre sauv\u00e9 par une intervention de la France puisqu\u2019il a fait fermer ses bases militaires\u2026Voil\u00e0 pourquoi une grande f\u00e9brilit\u00e9 agite actuellement la classe politique tchadienne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Le plus grave est que le choix de Mahamat D\u00e9by menace de faire voler en \u00e9clats l\u2019alchimie ethnique et politique tchadienne avec le risque d\u2019un retour \u00e0 la terrible guerre civile qui a ravag\u00e9 le pays avant la prise de pouvoir par Idriss D\u00e9by Itno. En plus de cela, Mahamat D\u00e9by s\u2019est coup\u00e9 d\u2019une partie du socle militaire zaghawa qui faisait la force de son p\u00e8re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Or, toute la vie politico-ethnique tchadienne d\u00e9pend des rapports internes de longue dur\u00e9e, des alliances, des ruptures et des r\u00e9conciliations plus ou moins \u00e9ph\u00e9m\u00e8res des ethnies nordistes autour desquelles s\u2019est \u00e9crite l\u2019histoire du pays depuis l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance. C\u2019est autour d\u2019elles que se sont faites toutes les guerres du Tchad depuis 1963. C\u2019est de leurs relations que d\u00e9pend le futur du pays, la majorit\u00e9 de la population n\u2019\u00e9tant que la spectatrice-victime de leurs d\u00e9chirements et de leurs ambitions. Or, l\u2019alignement du Tchad sur les FSR fait \u00e9clater au grand jour leurs divisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Il faut en effet bien avoir \u00e0 l\u2019esprit que les Zaghawa, les Toubou du Tibesti (les Teda), les Toubou de l\u2019Ennedi-Oum Chalouba (les Daza-Gorane) et les Arabes du Ouada\u00ef sont divis\u00e9s en une multitude de clans et de sous-groupes r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement pr\u00eats \u00e0 s\u2019affronter. Ainsi, les Zaghawa du clan Bideyat, celui d\u2019Idriss D\u00e9by Itno, n\u2019ont cess\u00e9 de se diviser. Pour m\u00e9moire, les fr\u00e8res Timan et Tom Erdibi, les propres neveux d\u2019Idriss D\u00e9by Itno, furent en guerre contre lui. Mahamat Idriss D\u00e9by, l\u2019un des fils d\u2019Idriss D\u00e9by Itno est de m\u00e8re gorane. Gorane est le nom arabe d\u00e9signant les Toubou de l\u2019Ennedi et d\u2019Oum Chalouba dont la langue est le daza. Lui-m\u00eame a \u00e9pous\u00e9 une Gorane. D\u2019o\u00f9 la m\u00e9fiance de certains Zaghawa qui consid\u00e8rent qu\u2019il n\u2019est qu\u2019en partie des leurs. M\u00eame si, par le pass\u00e9, des alliances plus qu\u2019\u00e9troites ont pu r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement associer Zaghawa et certains clans Gorane, les actuels \u00e9v\u00e8nements du Soudan font rena\u00eetre les ferments de division, certains Zaghawa consid\u00e9rant ainsi que le soutien aux FSR pourrait \u00eatre compris comme une rupture avec eux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Autre point, n\u2019oublions pas qu\u2019Hinda, l\u2019\u00e9pouse d\u2019Idriss D\u00e9by Itno, est une Arabe du Ouada\u00ef et que, dans la guerre civile soudanaise, les Arabes penchent du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des FSR.
Il est donc \u00e9vident que le choix de Mahamat D\u00e9by de soutenir les FSR fait en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 \u00e9clater la triple alliance ethno-clanique constitu\u00e9e par Idriss D\u00e9by , une alliance qui \u00e9tait le socle m\u00eame de son pouvoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Dans ce contexte, les rebelles tchadiens\u00a0qui combattent aujourd\u2019hui aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s des FAS sont utilis\u00e9s par ces derni\u00e8res pour tenter de renverser le pouvoir \u00e0 Ndjamena afin de priver les FSR de leur base arri\u00e8re tchadienne. La man\u0153uvre initi\u00e9e par les FAS qui\u00a0 est claire est mise en pratique depuis plusieurs mois\u00a0: porter la guerre au Darfour, fief des FSR, apr\u00e8s avoir bris\u00e9 le si\u00e8ge d\u2019El-Facher, afin de couper les routes d\u2019approvisionnement de ces derni\u00e8res depuis le Tchad. Une man\u0153uvre en forme de mouvement tournant qui se pr\u00e9cise encore davantage \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re des r\u00e9cents succ\u00e8s militaires des FAS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Voil\u00e0 pourquoi, en plus d\u2019avoir peut-\u00eatre mis\u00e9 sur le \u00ab\u00a0mauvais cheval\u00a0\u00bb, Mahamat D\u00e9by pourrait avoir soulev\u00e9 le couvercle de la cocotte-minute ethno-politique tchadienne\u2026
\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] Pour l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation militaire au Soudan on se reportera \u00e0 l\u2019article de Leslie Varenne intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0<\/em>Guerre au Soudan, le Tchad pris \u00e0 son propre pi\u00e8ge<\/em><\/a> \u00bb\u00a0publi\u00e9 dans Iveris et dans Mondafrique.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bernard LUGAN<\/strong>
https:\/\/bernardlugan.blogspot.com\/<\/em><\/a>
20 f\u00e9vrier 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n

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En soutenant les Forces de soutien rapide (FSR) dans la guerre civile soudanaise, le pr\u00e9sident tchadien Mahamat D\u00e9by fragilise son pouvoir et ravive les tensions ethno-politiques qui fa\u00e7onnent l\u2019histoire du pays. Alors que l\u2019arm\u00e9e soudanaise arme des rebelles tchadiens pour d\u00e9stabiliser son r\u00e9gime, D\u00e9by se retrouve confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une arm\u00e9e divis\u00e9e et un socle ethnique […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":17802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[288,278,107],"tags":[2251,2713,2823,4498,2666,1802,2475,464,828,1858,2126,1887,334,3038,3043,4504,2344,4494,2171,1871,4497,938,4500,295,1120,346,4495,327,4506,2502,2663,4503,4489,339,2498,1504,324,972,4502,4617,4505,2915,2197,2211,962,807,2191,1143,297,905,3125,3027,4496,2491,4616,1433,382,4492,1380,915],"class_list":["post-17792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2020-2030","category-actualites","category-geopolitique","tag-2251","tag-2713","tag-2823","tag-abdel-fattah-al-burhan","tag-afrique","tag-air","tag-alliance","tag-arabe","tag-armee","tag-armees","tag-bernard-lugan","tag-capacite","tag-capacites","tag-cite","tag-combat","tag-darfour","tag-dependance","tag-dimension-ethno-politique","tag-evolution","tag-forces-armees","tag-forces-armees-soudanaises","tag-france","tag-general-abdel-fattah-al-burhan","tag-geopolitique","tag-groupe","tag-guerre","tag-guerre-civile","tag-histoire","tag-idriss-deby","tag-independance","tag-intervention","tag-janjawid","tag-mahamat-deby","tag-memoire","tag-menace","tag-milice","tag-militaire","tag-militaires","tag-mohamed-hamdan-dagalo","tag-ndjam","tag-ndjamena","tag-politiques","tag-population","tag-pouvoir","tag-president","tag-rapport","tag-rapports","tag-regime","tag-relation","tag-relations","tag-sahel","tag-situation-militaire","tag-soudan","tag-soutien","tag-soutien-rapide","tag-ss","tag-succes","tag-tchad","tag-tr","tag-vision"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nG\u00e9opolitique. 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